Modelling of Malaria Risk Areas in Ghana by using Environmental and Anthropogenic Variables â€“ A Spatial Multi-Criteria Approach
Keywords:Malaria, GIS, Analytical Hierarchy Process, Ghana, Weighted Overlay
Malaria is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Ghana, accounting for over three million cases and thousands of deaths annually. The risks of morbidity and mortality associated with malaria are characterized by spatial and temporal variation across the country. This research sought to use GIS and multi-criteria decision analysis to produce a predictive model of malaria using eight risk factors ranging from environmental to anthropogenic. Each of the risk factors was classified into three classes of malaria risk according to how it impacts malaria prevalence. The classified risk factors were finally overlaid through the use of weighted overlay after weights were determined from them using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Results indicate that high risk areas are concentrated at the central as well as the west-southern parts of the country consisting mainly of the Ashanti, Brong Ahafo, Eastern, Central and the Western Regions. No area was classified as low risk while 53.51% and 46.49% were classified as medium and high risk respectively. The risk map created can serve not only as a predictive tool, but can be used to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of malaria transmission.
Abeku, T. A, de Vlas S. J, Borsboom G. J. J. M, Madege, A., Gebreyesus, Y., and Gebreyohannes, H., (2004), "Effects of Meteorological Factors on Epidemic Malaria in Ethiopia: a Statistical Modeling Approach Based on Theoretical Reasoning. Parasitology,Vol.128, pp. 585-593.
Afari, E. A, Appawu, M., Dunyo, S., Baffoe-Wilmot, A. and Nkrumah, F. K., (1995), "Malaria Infection, Morbidity and Transmission in Two Ecological Zones in Southern Ghana", African Journal of Health Sciences, Vol. 2, pp. 312-315.
Anon. (2003a). The Africa Malaria Report 2003: World Health Organization/UNICEF, 35 pp.
Anon. (2003b). United Nations Technical Health and Housing Report: United Nations, 45 pp.
Anon. (2008). International Travel and Health: Situations as on 1 January 2008. Geneva: World Health Organisation, 56 pp.
Anon. (2009). Malaria Operation Plan - Year Two (FY09): USAID, 21 pp.
Anon. (2010). The Health Sector in Ghana - Fact and Figures. Accra, Ghana: Ghana Health Service, 47 pp.
Basommi, L. P, (2011), "Spatial Analysis of Malaria Epidemiology in the Amansie West District", Unpublished MSc Thesis,Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, 73 pp.
Bayoh, M. N. and Lindsay, S. W., (2003), "Effect of Temperature on the Development of the Aquatic Stages of Anopheles Gambiae Sensu Stricto (Diptera: Culicidae)", Bull. Entomol. Res., Vol. 93, pp. 174-179.
Binka, F. M, (1997), Impact and Determinant of Permethrin Impregnated Bednets on Child Mortality in Northern Ghana, Basel: Swiss Tropical Institute, 134 pp.
Boroushaki, S. and Malczewski, J., (2010), "Participatory GIS: A Web-Based Collaborative GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysis", URISA, Vol. 22, No. 1, pp. 23-32.
Boulos, M. N., (2004), "Towards Evidence-based, GIS-driven National Spatial Health Information Infrastructure and Surveillance Services in the United Kingdom", International Journal of Health Geographics, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp 1-10.
Caldas de Castro, M., Yamagat, Y., Mtasiwa, D., Tanner, M. and Utzinger, J. (2004), "Integrated Urban Malaria Control: A Case Study in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania", Am J Trop Med Hyg Vol. 71, pp. 103-117.
Chikodzi, D. (2013), "Spatial Modelling of Malaria Risk Zones Using Environmental, Anthropogenic Variables and Geographical Information Systems Techniques", Journal of Geosciences and Geomatics, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 8-14.
Crees, M. J. and Mhlanga, T. H., (1983), "Malaria Prevalence in Zimbabwe and Parasite Survey of 1983", Zimbabwe Science News, Vol. 19, pp. 114-117.
Ebi, K. L., Hartman, J., Chan, N., Mcconnell, J. and Schlesinger, M. J. W., (2005), "Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios", Climate Change, Vol.73, pp. 375-393.
Ermert, V., Fink, A. and Paeth, H., (2013), "The Potential Effects of Climate Change on Malaria Transmission in Africa using Bias-Corrected Regionalised Climate Projections and a Simple Malaria Seasonality Model", Climate Change, Vol. 120, No. 4, pp. 741-754.
Gebremariam, N., (1988), "The Ecology of Health and Disease in Ethiopia", Malaria, pp. 136-150.
Gemperli, A., Sogoba, N., Fondjo, E., Mabaso, M. and Bagayoko, M., (2006), "Mapping Malaria Transmission in West and Central Africa", Trop Med Int Health, Vol. 11, pp. 1032-1046.
Getis, A. and Ord, J. K., (1992), "The Analysis of Spatial Association by use of Distance Statistics", Geographical Analysis, Vol. 24, No. 3, pp. 189-206.
Hartman, J., Ebi, K. L., Mcconnell, J., Chan, N. and Weyant, J., (2002), "Climate Suitability: For Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios", Global Change and Human Health, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 42-54.
Haydon, D. T., Randall, D. A., Matthews, L., Knobel, D. L. and Tallents, L. A., (2006), "Low-coverage Vaccination Strategies for the Conservation of Endangered Species", Nature Vol. 443, pp. 692-695.
Jepson, W. F., Moutia, A. and Courtois, C., (1947), "The Malaria Problem in Mauritius: The Bionomics of Mauritian Anopheline", Bulletin Entomological Research, Vol. 38, pp. 177-208.
Kazembe, L. N., Kleinschmidt, I., Holtz, T. H. and Sharp, B. L., (2006), "Spatial Analysis and Mapping of Malaria Risk in Malawi using Point-referenced Prevalence of Infection Data", International Journal of Health Geographics, Vol. 5, pp. 22- 41.
Kebede, A., McCann, J. C., Kiszewski, A. E. and Ye-Ebiyo, Y., (2005), "New Evidence of the Effects of Agro-ecologic Change on Malaria Transmission", American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol. 73, pp. 676-680.
Kiszewski, A., Mellinger, A., Spielman, A., Malaney, P. and Sachs, S., (2004), "A Global Index Representing the Stability of Malaria Transmission", Am J Trop Med Hyg, Vol. 70, pp. 486-498.
Kiszewski, A. E. and Tekelehaimanot, A., (2004), "A Review of the Clinical and Epidemiologic Burdens of Epidemic Malaria", Am J Trop Med Hyg, Vol. 71, No. 2, pp. 128-135.
Kleinschmidt, I., Bagayoko, M., Clarke, G. P. Y., Craig, M. and Le Sueur, D., (2000), "A Spatial Statistical Approach to Malaria Mapping. International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 20, No. 29, pp. 355-361.
Mabaso, M. L. H., Craig, M., Vounatsou, P. and Smith, T., (2005), "Towards Empirical Description of Malaria Seasonality in Southern Africa: The Example of Zimbabwe", Trop Med Int Health, Vol. 10, pp. 909-918.
Malczewski, J., (1999), GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysi, Wiley and Sons: New York, USA, 126 pp.
Minakawa, N., Sonye, G., Mogi, M. and Yan, G., (2004), "Habitat Characteristics of Anopheles Gambiaes Larvae in a Kenyan Highland", Med. Vet. Entomol, Vol. 18, pp. 301-305.
Ngxongo, S. M., (1994), The Epidemiology of Malaria in KwaZulu", Unpublished MSc Thesis, Unirsity of Natal, Pietermaritzburg, Durban, 76 pp.
Rafiee, R., Nematolah, K., Abdolrassoul, S. M., Ali, A. D., Afshin, D. and Syed, E. H., (2011), "Siting Transfer Station for Municipal Solid Waste Using a Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis", Environmental and Engineering Geoscience, Vol. 17, No. 2, pp. 143-154.
Saaty, T. L., (1980), The Analytic Hierarchy Process, McGraw Hill: New York, USA, 311 pp.
Saaty, T. L., (2001), The Analytic Hierarchy Process, McGraw Hill: New York, 325 pp.
Snow, R. W., Guerra, C. A., Noor, A. M., Myint, H. Y. and Hay, S. I., (2005), "The Global Distribution of Clinical Episodes of Plasmodium Falciparum Malaria", Nature, Vol. 434, pp. 14-217.
Snow, R. W. and Kevin, M., (2002), "The Consequences of Reducing Transmission of Plasmodium Falciparum in Africa", Adv Parasitol, Vol. 52, pp. 235-264.
Snow, R. W., Marsh, K. and Le Sueur, D. (1996), "The Need for Maps of Transmission Intensity to Guide Malaria Control in Africa", Parasitol Today, Vol. 12, pp. 455-457.
Tulu, N. A., (1993), "The Ecology of Health and Disease in Ethiopia", Malaria, pp. 341-352.
Worrall, E., Rietveld, A. and Delacollette, C., (2004), "The Burden of Malaria Epidemics and Cost-effectiveness of Interventions in Epidemic Situations in Africa", Am J Trop Med Hyg, Vol. 71, No. 2, pp. 136-140.
Xiao-Nong, Z., Shu-Shen, Z. and Zi-Guang, X., (2012), "Malaria Elimination Strategy and Challenges in Peopleâ€™s Republic of China", Malaria Journal, Vol. 2012, No. 1, pp. 111-138.
Yeshiwondim, A. K., Gopal, S., Hailemariam, A. T, Dengela, D. O, Patel, H. P, (2009), "Spatial Analysis of Malaria Incidence at the Village Level in Areas with Unstable Transmission in Ethiopia", International Journal of Health Geographics, Vol. 8, No. 5, pp. 11-23.
Copyright Â© 2021 University of Mines and Technology (UMaT), Tarkwa. Ghana